Dan Froomkin: Bush still believes in regime change.
More evidence that the leopard has not changed his spots. Dan Froomkin reports that Bush has still not ruled out regime change as a means of advancing US policy. Although, how he can try to pull it off in either Iran or Syria is beyond me. We know that he is quietly allowing his generals to work on plans of drawing down troops in Iraq. We also know that Bush is going on a major new PR offensive; most of Froomkin's column revolves around his image makeover, including answering questions from the audience and his interviews with NBC's Brian Williams.
I suggest that Bush is in the same kind of box that Saddam was in after the First Gulf War. Left almost defenseless against Iran, the 9/11 Commission believed that Saddam decided to create the illusion that he had WMD's in order to deter Iran from attacking him. I suggest given Bush's grudging acceptance of the reality of the situation in Iraq that he is doing something similar with regards to Iran and Syria -- send them a message that nothing is off the table even as he continues his plans to pull out of Iraq.
There is another possibility as well -- Bush could have leaked plans of withdrawal to the media in order to decieve the public when in fact no such withdrawal is planned. This is possible given his legendary bullheadedness and the fact that he makes so many of his decisions in a bubble, as Maureen Dowd pointed out. Therefore, the only real significance of these plans would be to blunt his fall in the polls while getting the public to take their eyes off the ball -- masking his real plans to invade Iran. This theory is supported by the fact that Vice President Cheney threatened to nuke Iran if someone ever bombs American soil and the culprits are not found.
But the problem with this theory is that Bush cannot invade Iran without committing political suicide by calling for a draft. And the Bush administration is one that is ruled by PR and spin, and the PR and spin people are among the few who are let into the Bush bubble these days. I suggest there is a rift between Bush and Cheney on this. On the one hand, Cheney wants to continue the neocon war of conquest and regime change to bring in more profits for Halliburton. On the other hand the PR people would not want Bush to invade Iran because of the political tailspin that would result.
But the Neocons are part of his base, and Bush must throw Cheney some kind of bone; after all, he picked him as the VP. So, I suggest that Bush is maintaining the appearence of toughness against Iran and Syria by not taking an invasion off the table while throwing a bone to his Neocon base and Cheney as well. The Bush administration's accusations against Iran of trying to subvert the Iraqi electoral process may be part of this process.